Research

Working papers

• Health Insurance as Economic Stimulus? Evidence from Long-Term Care Labor Markets (with Martin Hackmann, Jörg Heining, Roman Klimke, and Holger Seibert)
  [PDF] Upjohn Institute working paper  21-357, First draft: November 2021; Current version: September 2022
   
• Who Values Human Capitalists' Human Capital? The Earnings And Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians (with Joshua Gottlieb, Kevin Rinz, Hugh Shiplett, and Victoria Udalova)
  [PDF] NBER Working Paper No. 31469, First draft: July 2020; Current version: July 2023
  [Appendix PDF (includes full distribution of earnings; time series; specialty-level stats)]
  Revise and Resubmit at Quarterly Journal of Economics
  Stanford Health Policy Summary 
  BFI Research Brief
  Press coverage:
  Niskanen Center
  Washington Post
  Washington Post 
   
• Market Power and Redistribution: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act (with Stephen Ryan)
  [PDF] NBER Working Paper No. 26367, First draft: October 2019; Current version: August 2021
  SIEPR Summary
   
• Heterogeneity in Damages from A Pandemic (with Amy Finkelstein, Geoffrey Kocks, Victoria Udalova)
  [UPDATED SLIDES (Include 2nd year of the pandemic)]
  [PDF] NBER Working Paper No. 30658, First draft: November 2022
  Revise and Resubmit at Review of Economics and Statistics

Publications

• How do Consumers Interact with Digital Expert Advice? Experimental Evidence from Health Insurance (with Kate Bundorf and Ming Tai-Seale)
  [PDF] NBER Working Paper No. 25976, First draft: June 2019; Current version: March 2022  
  Accepted at Management Science
  Best paper award at Conference on Health IT and Analytics 2019
  [previously circulated as How do Humans Interact with Algorithms? Experimental Evidence from Health Insurance]
  Related comment in NBER The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges eds. Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, Tucker
  Press coverage:
  Stanford GSB Insights
  FastCompany
  phys.org
   
• Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic (with Kate Bundorf, Jill DeMatteis, Grant Miller, Jialu Streeter, Jonathan Wivagg)
  [PDF] Review of Economics and Statistics, March 2023
  Online appendices
  DATA
  NBER Research Spotlight video summary
  Press coverage:
  SIEPR
  New York Times
   
• Association of Family Income With Morbidity and Mortality Among US Lower-Income Children and Adolescents (with Victoria Udalova and Vinayak Bhatia)
  [Link] JAMA, 328(24), December 2022
  Online appendices
  Replication code
  Editorial by Janet Currie and Hannes Schwandt
  DATA
   
• A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise (with Amy Finkelstein, Petra Persson, and Jesse Shapiro)
  [PDF] American Economic Review: Insights, 4(4), December 2022
  Online appendices
  Replication code
  Press coverage:
  Freakonomics, M.D.
  Medscape
   
• The Roots of Health Inequality and the Value of Intra-Family Expertise (with Yiqun Chen and Petra Persson)
  [PDF] American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(3), July 2022
  Online appendices
  Replication code
  Press and policy coverage:
  The New Yorker
  Freakonomics, M.D.
  UN Human Development Report 2019
  BBC
  VoxEU
  NBER Digest
  Sueddeutsche Zeitung
  Scope Blog (1)
  Scope Blog (2)
  KCBS Radio
  SIEPR
  Becker's Hospital Review
  Stanford Health Policy
  Dagens Nyheter
   
• Analysis of Publicly Funded Reinsurance—Government Spending and Insurer Risk Exposure (with Vinayak Bhatia, and Kate Bundorf)
  [Link] JAMA Health Forum, 2(8), August 2021
   
• Racial Disparities in Excess All-Cause Mortality During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic Varied Substantially Across States (with Victoria Udalova, Geoffrey Kocks, Katie Genadek, Keith Finlay, and Amy Finkelstein)
  [Link] Health Affairs, 40(2), February 2021
  Online appendices
  NBER video summary
  Press and policy coverage:
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Science Update
  Stanford Medicine News
  HealthLeaders Media
  Chicago Tribune
  US Census Bureau Research Blog
  HHS ASPE Issue Brief March 2021
   
• Does Medicine Run in the Family—Evidence from Three Generations of Physicians in Sweden: Retrospective Observational Study (with Petra Persson, Katja Hofmann, and Anupam Jena)
  [Link] British Medical Journal, 371, December 2020
  Online appendices
  Press coverage:
  AAAS EurekaAlert
  New York Times
  Lakartidningen
  Inside Higher Ed
  SIEPR
   
• Initial Economic Damage from the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States is More Widespread Across Ages and Geographies than Initial Mortality Impacts (with Geoffrey Kocks, Victoria Udalova, and Amy Finkelstein)
  [Link] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (45), November  2020
  Online appendices
  Replication code
  Press coverage:
  New York Times
  Bloomberg
  Stanford Health Policy
  US Census Bureau Research Blog
   
• Subsidy Design in Privately-Provided Social Insurance: Lessons from Medicare Part D (with Francesco Decarolis and Stephen Ryan)
  [PDF] Journal of Political Economy, 128(5), May 2020
  Online appendices
  Replication code
  Press coverage:
  Forbes
  Stanford Health Policy
  theSource
  Microeconomic Insights
   
• Local Area Variation in Morbidity Among Low-Income, Older Adults in the United States (with Lynn Hua)
  [Link] Annals of Internal Medicine,171(6), September 2019
  Local Area Chronic Condition Index and adjusted prevalence of 48 chronic conditions at commuting zone level:
  [Data - Microsoft Excel® format]  [Data - Stata® 16] [Data - Stata® 13]
  Press and policy coverage:
  HealthLeaders Media
  Scope Blog
   
• Machine-Based Expert Recommendations And Consumer Choices For Medicare Prescription Drug Insurance (with Kate Bundorf, Cheryl Stults, Amy Meehan, Roman Klimke, Ting Pan, Albert Chan, and Ming Tai-Seale)
  [Link] Health Affairs, 38 (3), March 2019
  Online appendices
   
• Private Provision of Social Insurance: Drug-Specific Price Elasticities and Cost Sharing in Medicare Part D  (with Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein)
  [PDF] American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(3), August 2018
  Online appendices
  Replication code
  Drug-level elasticity estimates - downloadable .xls
  Class-level elasticity estimates - downloadable .xls
   
• ACA Marketplace Premiums and Competition among Hospitals and Physician Practices (with Kate Bundorf, Daniel Kessler and Laurence Baker)
  [Link]  American Journal of Managed Care, 24(2), February 2018
   
• Marketplace Plans Provide Risk Protection, But Actuarial Values Overstate Realized Coverage For Most Enrollees (with Lynn Hua and Kate Bundorf)
  [Link] Health Affairs, 36(12), December 2017
   
• Risk Selection and Heterogeneous Preferences in Health Insurance Markets with a Public Option
  [PDF] Journal of Health Economics, 49, September 2016
   
• Regulation of Insurance with Adverse Selection and Switching Costs: Evidence from Medicare Part D
  [PDF] American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(3), July 2016
  Online appendices
  Replication code